What history suggests about the stock market in 2025!

What history suggests about the stock market in 2025!

What history suggests about the stock market in 2025!

📈 The U.S. labor market ended 2024 on a surprisingly strong note, adding 256,000 new jobs in December, far exceeding Wall Street’s forecast of 164,000. Unemployment dipped to 4.1%, but this robust jobs report is creating ripple effects for Federal Reserve rate bets, Treasury yields, and the stock market.

💼 Here’s the breakdown:
✅ Wages are climbing: Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% from the prior month, up 3.9% annually.
✅ Fed rate cut delays? Bond markets are spooked, and now experts suggest the first Fed rate cut might not come until October 2025 (down from May predictions).
✅ Markets react: Stocks took a hit, with the S&P 500 down 1.18%, Nasdaq dropping 1.79%, and Treasury yields climbing higher.

🔍 Key questions moving forward:
1️⃣ Will higher yields and inflationary pressures dampen market growth this year?
2️⃣ How might incoming policies on trade and immigration impact labor costs?
3️⃣ Is this “uneasy equilibrium” in the labor market a ticking time bomb?

🌟 What do YOU think?
📊 Will 2025 be a tough year for markets, or will we see resilience despite the challenges?

Merrill Kaliser
Merrill Kaliser