Recession Coming?

reVISION Masters has been stating that we believe a recession is probably coming. Wallstreet is pricing a 100bps reduction by 12/24. This article cites Deutsche Bank projecting 175 pbs during the same time frame. Inflation (subject to revisions, something unexpected ~ which should be expected) is trending towards 2% by mid 24Q1. Then what? Historically, there is a lag from when the Fed stops dropping rates to the time inflation starts dropping. We should note that with inflation trending downward towards the Fed's goal rate, the Fed has only raised its rate .25 bps in 7 months. This is a far cry from 22Q2 through 23Q1.

This is simply another article/opinion as to what those which more knowledge that I have, are predicting. My hope is that Wallstreet and other economists are right with a 100 bps to 175 bps reduction in the next 12 months.

And......yes, I know that I can find just as many economist out there stating that the Fed will hold rates high for a longer period of time.

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