New Podcast: Historical roadmap to our turbulent real estate market

Wondering how we got to the current state of the real estate market and where we might be heading next? Our latest podcast episode provides a deep analysis of the last six U.S. real estate cycles, offering critical lessons for navigating today's unique environment.

We explore how the nature of real estate cycles has evolved from the S&L crisis of the 80s to the "Great Normalization" of today. While the boom-and-bust pattern is predictable, the forces behind each cycle change dramatically 💥.

In this episode, we discuss:

Shifting Epicenters of Risk ⚠️: We analyze how vulnerabilities have moved between commercial and residential sectors. The S&L crisis was a commercial real estate bust driven by tax policy , while the 2008 Great Financial Crisis was a collapse of the residential market fueled by lax credit standards.

The Power of Policy 🏛️: Monetary policy is arguably the most powerful driver of real estate cycles. Nearly every downturn is preceded by a period of Federal Reserve tightening, and every recovery is spurred by a period of easing. The current cycle is a direct response to the Fed's aggressive tightening to combat post-pandemic inflation.

The Rise of Secular Trends 🚀: Recent cycles have been increasingly shaped by transformative trends like e-commerce and remote work. These forces are creating long-term winners (like industrial/logistics and data centers ✅) and losers (like traditional office and brick-and-mortar retail ❌), independent of the broader economic cycle.

Today's "Lock-In" Effect 🔒: The current market is defined not by a price crash, but by a collapse in liquidity. A "lock-in" effect has frozen the housing market, as homeowners with low-rate mortgages are financially disincentivized from selling, leading to a dearth of inventory.

Understanding these historical precedents provides a crucial framework for identifying risks and opportunities in the current market.

Listen to the full episode 🎧 to learn more about asset performance across cycles and the strategic implications for investors today.

Click here