July Housing Market Analysis

Here's a look at the housing market for July, based on early local data from Bill McBride's newsletter. 🏡 Tracking these local markets gives us a sneak peek at broader trends and regional variations.

Closed Sales 🔑

July sales saw a modest increase, up 0.9% year-over-year (YoY), mirroring the growth seen in June. These sales largely reflect contracts signed in May and June when mortgage rates were around 6.82%.

It's important to note that July 2025 and July 2024 had the same number of working days, making this a clean YoY comparison. However, sales are still significantly down compared to pre-pandemic levels in July 2019. This early data suggests the national report from NAR could show a month-over-month increase and potentially the first YoY gain after five months of decreases.

New Listings 📈
Good news for buyers! New listings jumped 9.2% YoY. While this is a solid increase and a step towards a more balanced market, listings are still about 14.7% below July 2019 levels.

Active Inventory ⬆️
Active inventory continues to climb, up 35.2% YoY. This significant increase builds on the inventory growth we've seen all spring and summer. ☀️

However, the inventory story varies greatly by location. For example, compared to July 2019, inventory is up sharply in markets like Denver but remains down in places like San Diego.

Why am I watching the housing market? DIRECT relationship to the multifamily housing market. The more unaffordable or higher monthly costs discrepancy between owning a house vs. renting, the frothier it may be for multifamily. 😋

In short: The market is showing signs of rebalancing. Sales are stabilizing, and inventory is growing, which could offer some relief for buyers. We'll be watching for the official NAR data to confirm these trends!